Collusion_How Central Bankers Rigged the World Read online

  145. “Mexico’s Inflation Report” (image), Getty Images, www.gettyimages.ch/detail/nachrichtenfoto/governor-of-the-bank-of-mexico-agustin-carstens-nachrichtenfoto/106193591#governor-of-the-bank-of-mexico-agustin-carstens-presents-the-report-picture-id106193591.

  146. “Update 1—Mexico Central Bank Sees Emerging Mkts Bubble Risk,” Reuters, November 17, 2010, http://uk.reuters.com/article/mexico-economy-idUSN1722247520101117.

  147. Arnaldo Galvao and Andre Soliani, “Mantega Says US Throwing ‘Money from a Helicopter,’” Bloomberg, November 4, 2010, www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2010-11-04/mantega-says-u-s-throwing-money-won-t-force-brazil-to-act-on-currency.

  148. Jens Erik Gould, “Carstens Eyes Fed While Weighing Mexico Rate Cut,” Bloomberg, November 11, 2010, www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2010-11-11/carstens-monitors-fed-easing-effect-while-considering-mexico-rate-decision.

  149. “Agustín Guillermo Carstens Carstens,” Banco de México, www.banxico.org.mx/acerca-del-banco-de-mexico/junta-de-gobierno/agustin-carstens-curriculum-b.html.

  150. Pedro Nicolaci da Costa, “Carstens Says Mexico Resilient to US Softness,” Reuters, April 16, 2011, www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-economy-carstens-interview-idUSTRE73F2QC20110416.

  151. “Update 5—Mexico’s Economy Stumbles at End of 2011,” Reuters, February 16, 2012, www.reuters.com/article/mexico-economy-idUSL4E8DG45020120216.

  152. Giles Tremlett, “Portugal’s PM Calls on EU for Bailout,” Guardian (Manchester), April 6, 2011, www.theguardian.com/world/2011/apr/07/portugal-eu-bailout.

  153. “Timeline: The Unfolding Eurozone Crisis,” BBC News, June 13, 2012, www.bbc.com/news/business-13856580.

  154. Alicia Gonzalez, “Europa no necesita un europeo en el FMI, necesita soluciones,” El País (Madrid), May 31, 2011, http://elpaís.com/diario/2011/05/31/economia/1306792810_850215.html.

  155. Agustín Carstens, “Remarks by Agustín Carstens, Governor of Banco de México at the US-Mexico Chamber of Commerce Good Neighbor Awards, Washington, DC, May 12, 2011,” www.banxico.org.mx/publicaciones-y-discursos/discursos-y-presentaciones/discursos/%7BAA4A2D69-8582-D17B-E62B-608FF1672F14%7D.pdf.

  156. “IMF Executive Board to Consider the Nominations of Agustín Carstens and Christine Lagarde for the Position of IMF Managing Director” (press release), International Monetary Fund, June 13, 2011, www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2011/pr11230.htm.

  157. “Update 2—Brazil Backs France’s Lagarde in IMF Race,” Reuters, June 28, 2011, www.reuters.com/article/imf-brazil-idUSN1E75R0HA20110628.

  158. David Luhnow, “‘San Agustín’ Tries to Settle IMF’s 65-0 Score,” Wall Street Journal, June 11, 2011, www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304259304576377913327550124.

  159. Leon Lazaroff and Jose Enrique Arrioja, “Carstens Expects Mexican Peso to Pare Decline Against Dollar,” Bloomberg, September 15, 2011, www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2011-09-15/carstens-says-peso-to-pare-decline-against-dollar-on-mexican-fundamentals.

  160. Agustín Carstens’s daily schedule, Friday, July 1, 2011, www.newyorkfed.org/media library/media/aboutthefed/dailyschedules_120127.pdf.

  161. Jonathan J. Levin and Ben Bain, “Banxico Rate-Cut Bets Tossed Out as Peso Plunges: Mexico Credit,” Bloomberg, September 23, 2011, www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2011-09-23/banxico-rate-cut-bets-tossed-out-as-peso-plunges-mexico-credit.

  162. Mark Weisbrot, “For Mexicans, It Was the Economy, Stupid,” New York Times, July 2, 2012, www.nytimes.com/2012/07/03/opinion/for-mexicans-it-was-the-economy-stupid.html.

  163. Elizabeth A. Duke, “Central Bank Cooperation in Times of Crisis” (speech, Center for Latin American Monetary Studies 60th Anniversary Conference, Mexico City, Mexico, July 20, 2012), www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/duke20120720a.htm.

  164. Agustín Carstens, “Cooperation among Central Banks at the Beginning of the XXI Century” (keynote speech, 60th anniversary of the Center for Latin American Monetary Studies, Mexico City, Mexico, July 19, 2012), www.bis.org/review/r120816d.pdf.

  165. Alejandro Toledo Patiño, “The Euro Crisis and the Mexican Economy,” Revista Voices of Mexico 93 (2015): 24–28, www.revistascisan.unam.mx/Voices/pdfs/9306.pdf.

  166. “Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement” (press release), Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, September 13, 2012, www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20120913a.htm.

  167. “Mexico’s Carstens Says Fed’s Move Helps Mexico,” Reuters, September 13, 2012, www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-economy-carstens-idUSBRE88C1FA20120913.

  168. Eleazar David Meléndez, “Mexican Stock Exchange Having Record-Breaking Month on Bank Strength, Economic Confidence,” International Business Times, December 11, 2012, www.ibtimes.com/mexican-stock-exchange-having-record-breaking-month-bank-strength-economic-confidence-933339.

  169. Inflation Report: April–June 2013 (Mexico City: Banco de México, 2013), www.banxico.org.mx/publicaciones-y-discursos/publicaciones/informes-periodicos/trimestral-inflacion/%7BC3536BCA-AA75-49B3-3803-18E611061E36%7D.pdf.

  170. Quarterly Report: October–December 2013 (Mexico City: Banco de México, February 2014), www.banxico.org.mx/publicaciones-y-discursos/publicaciones/informes-periodicos/trimestral-inflacion/%7B09ABB759-CBE0-E08A-86F3-FCD6609F9300%7D.pdf.

  171. Rodrigo A. Rosales, “Termina economía mexicana con debilidad en el 2013,” El Economista, February 23, 2014, http://eleconomista.com.mx/finanzas-publicas/2014/02/23/termina-economia-mexicana-debilidad-2013.

  172. Roberto González Amador, “Llega cartera vencida de créditos bancarios al consumo a la cifra más alta desde 2009,” La Jornada, March 4, 2013, www.lja.mx/2013/04 /llega-cartera-vencida-de-creditos-bancarios-al-consumo-a-la-cifra-mas-alta-desde-2009/.

  173. Dave Graham and Jean Arce, “Mexico to Escape Recession After Floods, but Risks to Growth Rise: Reuters Poll,” Reuters, September 25, 2013, www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-economy-idUSBRE98O1A920130925.

  174. Lourdes Contreras, “Reforma financiera: ¿más crédito para las Pymes?” Forbes Mexico, April 27, 2013, www.forbes.com.mx/pymes-prestar-mas-ganar-mas/#gs.5g0s7Ak.

  175. Agustín Carstens, “Monetary Policy Options and Tools” (handout at Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City symposium, 2013), 135–148, www.kansascityfed.org/publicat/sympos/2013/2013Carstenshandout.pdf.

  176. International conference to commemorate the twentieth anniversary of the autonomy of Banco de México: “Central Bank Independence—Progress and Challenges,” Banco de México, Mexico City, Mexico, October 14–15, 2013, www.banxico.org.mx/dyn/publicaciones-y-discursos/publicaciones/seminarios/central-bank-independence-_-p.html.

  177. Ben S. Bernanke, “Celebrating 20 Years of the Bank of Mexico’s Independence” (speech, Central Bank Independence—Progress and Challenges conference, Banco de México, Mexico City, Mexico, October 14–15, 2013), www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20131014a.htm.

  178. Manuel Sánchez, “Mexico’s Prospects for Economic Growth” (remarks, United States–Mexico Chamber of Commerce, New York City, October 18, 2013), www.bis.org/review/r131024a.htm.

  179. “Update 4—Mexico Central Bank Unexpectedly Cuts Rate to Spur Weak Economy,” Reuters, June 6, 2014, http://lta.reuters.com/article/idLTAL1N0ON0XW20140606.

  180. Peter Vanham, “Top 10 Things to Know About the Mexican Economy,” World Economic Forum, May 5, 2014, www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/05/top-10-things-to-know-about-the-mexican-economy/.

  181. Mexico: Economic Update (Dallas, TX: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, May 2, 2014), https://dallasfed.org/assets/documents/research/update/mex/2014/mex1403.pdf.

  182. “Citi Banamex Announces $1.5 Billion Investment Program in Mexico” (press release), Citigroup, September 9, 2014, www.citigroup.com/citi/news/2014/141002b.htm.

  183. Amy Guthrie, “Citigroup to Bolster Mexican Unit,” Wall Street Journal, September 9, 2014, www.wsj.com/articles/citigroup-to-bolster-mexican-unit-1410292427.

  184. “Citi Banamex Announces $1.5 Billion Investment Program in Mexico” (pres
s release).

  185. “Crédito a pymes creció 12% anual en seis años: Banxico,” El Financiero, April 22, 2015, www.elfinanciero.com.mx/economia/credito-a-pymes-crecio-12-anual-en-seis-anos-banxico.html.

  186. Christina Rexrode, “Citigroup Consumer Chief Plans to Leave,” Wall Street Journal, October 15, 2014, www.wsj.com/articles/citigroup-consumer-chief-plans-to-leave-1413338403?tesla=y.

  187. “Mexico Regulators Fine Citi Unit $2 Million over Loan Scandal,” Reuters, October 15, 2014, www.reuters.com/article/citigroup-banamex-idUSL2N0S91OF20141016.

  188. Anthony Harrup, “Mexican Inflation Ends 2014 Above Central Bank’s Target,” Wall Street Journal, January 8, 2015, www.wsj.com/articles/mexican-inflation-ends-2014-above-central-banks-target-1420727839.

  189. “Agustín Guillermo Carstens Carstens,” Banco de México, www.banxico.org.mx/acerca-del-banco-de-mexico/junta-de-gobierno/agustin-carstens-curriculum-b.html.

  190. “Challenges for Emerging Economies in the Face of Unconventional Monetary Policies in Advanced Economies” (Stavros Niarchos Foundation Lecture, Peterson Institute for International Economics, April 20, 2015), https://piie.com/sites/default/files/publications/papers/carstens20150420.pdf.

  191. Anthony Harrup, “Mexico to Sell Dollars to Support Peso,” Wall Street Journal, March 11, 2015, www.wsj.com/articles/mexico-to-sell-dollars-to-support-peso-1426087391.

  192. “Update 4—Mexico Central Bank Moves to Defend Peso, Eyes Weak Economy,” Reuters, July 30, 2015, www.reuters.com/article/mexico-economy-idUSL1N10A2SQ20150730.

  193. Eric Martin and Isabella Cota, “Bank of Mexico Is Betting $8.6 Billion on Ending Peso’s Plunge,” Bloomberg, July 31, 2015, www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-31/bank-of-mexico-is-betting-8-6-billion-on-ending-peso-s-plunge.

  194. Michael O’Boyle, “Mexico Will Protect Peso, Fed Not Only Factor for Rates: Carstens,” Reuters, December 7, 2015, www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-economy-carstens-idUSKBN0TQ2MD20151208.

  195. Martin and Cota, “Bank of Mexico Is Betting $8.6 Billion on Ending Peso’s Plunge.”

  196. “Update 1—Mexico Consumer Confidence Plunges in April by Most in 9 Months,” Reuters, May 8, 2015, www.reuters.com/article/mexico-economy-idUSL1N0XZ0ZK20150508.

  197. “Update 1—Mexico’s Carstens Says Could Raise Rates at Any Time to Defend Peso,” Reuters, July 31, 2015, www.reuters.com/article/mexico-peso-idUSL1N10B12T20150731.

  198. Institute of International Finance report, “Corporate Debt in Emerging Markets: What Should We Be Worried About?” Institute of International Finance, March 31, 2015, www.iif.com/publication/html-publication/corporate-debt-emerging-markets-what-should-we-be-worried-about.

  199. Rosalía Lara and Ana Valle, “Deuda de empresas crece 22% a junio por dólar caro,” El Financiero, August 5, 2015, www.elfinanciero.com.mx/empresas/deuda-de-empresas-crece-22-a-junio-por-dolar-caro.html.

  200. Mario Villalpando B. “Bank Credit and Productivity: Evidence from Mexican Firms” (Banco de México Working Papers No. 2015-06, Banco de México, Mexico City, March 2015), www.banxico.org.mx/publicaciones-y-discursos/publicaciones/documentos-de-investigacion/banxico/%7BD57584CB-47BF-D55D-99BE-53A3B7A88AA6%7D.pdf.

  201. Heather Long, “The Stock Market Drop… by the Numbers,” CNN, August 24, 2015, http://money.cnn.com/2015/08/24/investing/stocks-market-crash-by-the-numbers/.

  202. AFP, “Mexico Raises Key Interest Rate After Fed Move,” Yahoo!, December 17, 2015, http://news.yahoo.com/mexico-raises-key-interest-rate-fed-move-195530640.html.

  203. “Mexico Interest Rate: 2005–2017,” Trading Economics, accessed September 7, 2017, www.tradingeconomics.com/mexico/interest-rate.

  204. O’Boyle, “Mexico Will Protect Peso, Fed Not Only Factor for Rates: Carstens.”

  205. “Of Cars and Capital Flows: Mexican Central Bank Leader Discusses Auto Production, Global Challenges,” Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, December 17, 2015, www.frbatlanta.org/economy-matters/2015/12/17/mexican-central-bank-leader-discusses-auto-production-global-challenges.

  206. Christine Lagarde, “The Case for a Global Policy Upgrade by Managing Director Christine Lagarde” (speech, Farewell Symposium for Christian Noyer, Banque de France, Paris, January 12, 2016), www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2016/011216.htm.

  207. Agustín Carstens, “Unconventional Monetary Policies, Spillovers and Policy Options for EMEs” (presentation, Farewell Symposium for Christian Noyer, Banque de France, Paris, January 12, 2016), www.banxico.org.mx/publicaciones-y-discursos/discursos-y-presentaciones/presentaciones/%7BFE4CAF98-C2FD-E352-749B-07C588024377%7D.pdf.

  208. Jude Webber, “Mexico’s Markets Stand Out from Turmoil,” Financial Times, January 25, 2016.

  209. “Mexico’s Carstens Sees Growth Slightly Above 2.5 pct in 2016,” Reuters, February 5, 2016, www.reuters.com/article/mexico-carstens-idUSE1N14R017.

  210. Pablo Medina Uribe, “Explainer: Latin America’s Minimum Wage Increases,” Americas Society/Council of the Americas, January 26, 2016, www.as-coa.org/articles/explainer-latin-americas-minimum-wage-increases.

  211. Investment in Mexico: 2015 (Mexico City: KPMG, 2015), https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/mx/pdf/2016/09/Investment-in-Mexico-2015.pdf.

  212. “Mexico’s Carstens Says ‘Implicitly’ Weighing Risk of Trump Victory,” Reuters, March 11, 2016, www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-economy-trump-idUSMTZSAPEC3BW2MTK2.

  213. “Wilson Center Study Finds 5 Million US Jobs Depend on Trade with Mexico,” Wilson Center, November 4, 2016, https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/wilson-center-study-finds-5-million-us-jobs-depend-trade-mexico.

  214. “Banxico vende 400 mdd en subastas ante caída del peso,” El Economista, February 11, 2016, http://eleconomista.com.mx/sistema-financiero/2016/02/11/banxico-vende-400-mdd-subastas-ante-desplome-peso.

  215. Yolanda Morales, “Banxico inyectó en defensa del peso 24,455 mdd en un año,” El Economista, December 13, 2015, http://eleconomista.com.mx/finanzas-publicas/2015/12/13/banxico-inyecto-defensa-peso-24455-mdd-ano.

  216. “Agustín Carstens: el Banco Central de México no será tímido para mover las tasas de interés,” Reuters, April 19, 2016, www.americaeconomia.com/economia-mercados/finanzas/agustin-carstens-el-banco-central-de-mexico-no-sera-timido-para-mover-las.

  217. Sam Fleming, “Central Bankers Fear Threat of Low-Growth Rut,” Financial Times, August 28, 2016, www.ft.com/content/e93cec28-6ce8-11e6-9ac1-1055824ca907.

  218. Alejandro Poiré, interview with author via Skype, August 9, 2016.

  219. In February 2016, I addressed Tecnológico de Monterrey students and exchanged ideas with faculty at the university’s modern Guadalajara campus.

  220. “Encuesta sobre las Expectativas de los Especialistas en Economía del Sector Privado: Enero de 2016,” Banco de México, February 2, 2016, www.banxico.org.mx/dyn/informacion-para-la-prensa/comunicados/resultados-de-encuestas/expectativas-de-los-especialistas/%7B4632B968-0FD4-8306-3395-8FD2E01FDFC6%7D.pdf.

  221. Gabriel Stargardter, “Mexico Sees Trade Deals in TPP Leftovers, Flags China Opportunity,” Reuters, November 22, 2016, www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-mexico-idUSKBN13H1ZV.

  222. Christopher Woody, “Mexican Central-Bank Chief: The Donald Trump ‘Horror Movie’ Is About to Start,” Business Insider, December 20, 2016, www.businessinsider.com/mexican-central-bank-chief-trump-horror-movie-2016-12.

  223. Jude Webber, “Carstens Quits Mexican Central Bank to Head BIS,” Financial Times, December 1, 2016, www.ft.com/content/8be6aae6-b7e8-11e6-ba85-95d1533d9a62.

  224. Donald J. Trump, Twitter post, January 26, 2017, 5:55 a.m., https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/824616644370714627?lang=en.

  225. Enrique Peña Nieto, Twitter post, January 26, 2017, 8:48 a.m., https://twitter.com/EPN/status/824660333964824576.

  226. “Visits by Foreign Leaders in 2009,” Office of the Historian, Bureau of Public Affairs, US Department of State, https://history.state.gov/departmenthistory/visits/2009.

  227. Eric Wuestewald, “Today in Trump T
weets: January 27, 2017,” McClatchy DC Bureau, January 27, 2017, www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article129156129.html.

  228. “Central Banks Should Revert to Conventional Tools, New BIS Head Says,” Reuters, January 30, 2017, www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-economy-carstens-idUSKBN15E26W.

  229. Michael O’Boyle and Dave Graham, “Mexico Central Bank Hikes Interest Rate, Hints It’s Done,” Reuters, June 22, 2017, www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-economy-rate-idUSKBN19D2E6?il=0.

  230. Jeff Mason and David Lawder, “Trump Says Was ‘Psyched to Terminate NAFTA’ but Reconsidered,” Reuters, April 26, 2017, www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-nafta-idUSKBN17S2DG.

  231. Julie Pace and Catherine Lucey, “Kushner Emerged as Conduit for Canada on NAFTA Talks,” Associated Press, May 9, 2017, https://apnews.com/83a8c5856a5c4f48adcd1e07980144d3.

  CHAPTER 2: BRAZIL: NATIONAL POLITICS MEETS THE FEDERAL RESERVE MEETS CHINA

  1. Bill Vann, “Brazil: Lula’s Appointments Point to More Rigorous Austerity,” World Socialist Web Site, December 31, 2002, https://translate.google.com.br/translate?sl=pt&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=pt-BR&ie=UTF-8&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.wsws.org%2Fpt%2F2002%2Fdec2002%2Fpor1-d31.shtml&edit-text=&act=url.

  2. “Henrique Meirelles,” Globe.com, published May 30, 2016, updated July 20, 2017, https://translate.google.com.br/translate?sl=pt&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=pt-BR&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fepoca.globo.com%2Ftudo-sobre%2Fnoticia%2F2016%2F05%2Fhenrique-meirelles.html&edit-text=&act=url.

  3. José Roberto Afonsoa, Eliane Cristina Araújo, Bernardo Guelber Fajardo, “The Role of Fiscal and Monetary Policies in the Brazilian Economy: Understanding Recent Institutional Reforms and Economic Changes,” Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 62 (November 2016): 41–55, www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062976916300527.

  4. Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.

  5. Kristina Cooke, Walter Brandimarte, and Ana da Costa, “Exclusive: Brazil’s Meirelles Asked US to Lobby Lula: Cable,” Reuters, March 25, 2011, www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/25/us-brazil-meirelles-idUSTRE72O5BG20110325#YpQhOqYsQMLRTJWr.99.